Trump’s ‘Very Big Deal’ with Zelensky Faces Doubts Over Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth

Trump’s ‘Very Big Deal’ with Zelensky Faces Doubts Over Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth

Trump’s Bold Claim on Ukraine’s Resources

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has touted a potential trillion-dollar deal with Ukraine, promising American access to a vast supply of rare earth minerals. Trump claimed the agreement, expected to be signed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, would effectively reimburse U.S. taxpayers for the billions spent on military aid to Ukraine.

However, current and former U.S. officials, as well as industry experts, cast significant doubt on the feasibility of this promise. They argue that Ukraine’s mineral wealth is largely uncertain, outdated, and difficult—if not impossible—to extract, particularly in war-torn regions of the country.

Lack of Verified Mineral Reserves

While Ukraine does possess resources such as graphite, lithium, and titanium—considered critical by the U.S.—its rare earth mineral reserves remain largely unproven. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) states that Ukraine has no confirmed rare earth mineral reserves or processing facilities. Most available data on Ukraine’s resources rely on outdated Soviet-era surveys.

Jack Conness, a senior analyst at Energy Innovation, emphasized the uncertainty, stating, “Generally speaking, it’s not to say these resources don’t exist, but we know very little about what there is to offer.”

Challenges in Extraction and Investment

Beyond the uncertainty of Ukraine’s mineral wealth, experts warn that extracting and refining these resources is costly and time-consuming. Many of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are located in Russian-occupied or conflict-heavy regions, making access nearly impossible. Other deposits lie in areas riddled with landmines and unexploded ordnance, further complicating extraction.

A former senior Biden administration official dismissed the deal’s viability, stating, “I’m not aware of a single U.S. company that was clamoring to get into the mining business in Ukraine.”

A Deal Driven by Politics?

The idea of leveraging Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for U.S. aid was initially proposed by Zelensky as part of his "Victory Plan." However, Biden administration officials largely ignored the proposal, viewing it as unrealistic. Many believe Zelensky presented the idea to Trump because of his transactional approach to foreign policy.

The agreement, as drafted, does not mention Trump’s claim that the U.S. could recover its previous aid to Ukraine. Instead, it outlines the creation of a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to be jointly managed by both nations for rebuilding Ukraine’s war-ravaged infrastructure.

Security Guarantees and Economic Interests

As Ukraine seeks stronger security assurances from the U.S., Trump has resisted offering direct military guarantees or NATO membership. Instead, his administration argues that a minerals deal would incentivize the U.S. to protect its investments in Ukraine, thereby indirectly strengthening its security.

National Security Adviser Mike Waltz stated, “Of course, the U.S. would protect our assets, for which we are invested in… This could mean trillions, not only for the Ukrainian people but for us and for stability in the region.”

Uncertainty Looms Over the Deal

While Trump continues to promote the deal as a game-changer, experts warn that the potential benefits remain speculative at best. The lack of verified mineral reserves, the immense challenges of extraction, and the ongoing war cast doubt on the economic viability of the agreement.

For now, Ukraine and the U.S. remain tied in a complex political and economic negotiation—one that may prove far more difficult than Trump’s optimistic projections suggest.